UTTAR PRADESH 2017 ELECTIONS: OPINION POLL

UP Election 2017 Opinion Poll Summary

Media Agencies	Dates	BJP	SP+Cong	BSP	Others
India Today-Axis	Jan 31, 2017	180-191	168-178	39-43	1–4
Times Now-VMR	Jan 31, 2017	202	147	47	7
ABP News-Lokniti	Jan 30, 2017	118-128	187-197	76-86	-
VDPAssociates	Jan 29, 2017	207	128	58	-
THE WEEK-Hansa Research	Jan 27th, 2017	192-196	178-182	20-24	5-9

Following is a detailed break-up of the results of different opinion polls conducted by independent media agencies:

Latest India Today-Axis Opinion Poll on Uttar Pradesh Assembly Election 2017

According to India Today-Axis survey, the BJP would win around 180-191 seats in Uttar Pradesh assembly elections. The poll also predicts a good number of seats for newly formed SP-congress alliance, giving them 168-178 seats, slightly behind the BJP. The poll also predicts a dismal performance by Bahujan Samaj Party which according to it would bag only 39-43 seats.

Interestingly according to the polls, there is only a slight difference between the vote share of the BJP and SP-congress alliance. BJP gets 34.8 percent of votes while the congress gets 33.2 percent of the total votes polled according to the survey.BSP would get 20.1 percent votes the survey says.

Party Name	Projected Seat Share	Vote Share %
BJP	180-191	34.8
Cong+SP	168-178	33.2
BSP	39-43	20.1
Others	1 - 4	11.9

Times Now-VMR survey on Uttar Pradesh Assembly Election 2017

Survey published date: Jan 31, 2017

Party	Seat Share	Vote Share (%)
BJP	202	34
SP+Cong	147	31
BSP	47	24
Others	7	11

The ABP survey predicts win for SP-Congress combine in UP

The SP- Congress alliance would be the single largest political group in the upcoming election in Uttar Pradesh. These are the predictions of a survey conducted by ABP News-Lokniti CSDS. The survey says that it, however, would fall short of the simple majority as it would be able to garner only 187 to 197 seats.

The poll also questioned people on who was their choice for the UP CM. 26 percent people chose Akhilesh Yadav over Bahujan Samaj Party chief Mayawati. 21 percent respondents voted for her. The other important findings of the survey are that moe than 73 percent Muslims and Yadavs are inclined to vote for Samajwadi Party-Congress alliance while 59 percent of forward voters would back the BJP. Around 34 non-Yadav OBCs would vote for the BJP, the survey predicts. 

The poll also surveyed the Dalits who it feels would en masse vote for the Bahujan Samaj Party. The majority of Dalits are Jatavs in Uttar Pradesh. The poll says around 79 percent of them would vote for BSP while only 10 percent would vote for Samajwadi Party. Rest are likely to vote for the BJP.

Party	Seat Share	Vote Share (%)
SP+Cong	187-197	35
BJP	118-128	29
BSP	76-86	23

Uttar Pradesh Seat Share Forecast by VDPAssociates

VDP Associates, an agency that conducts opinion poll has come up with startling revelations in its latest opinion poll conducted merely 15 days before the polls in the largest state of Uttar Pradesh. The Agency gives a clear majority to Bharatiya Janata Party in the coming polls. According to its poll, the BJP would get the majority with 207 seats in the house of 403. It would garner 35 percent votes and thus form the government.

What should come as a shocker to the ruling Samajwadi Party and the Congress, its alliance partner is that they would be second and third runner-ups in the assembly elections. SP would get 104 seats with 25 percent votes while congress would get 24 seats with 7 percent votes. Together as an alliance, they would get 128 seats harvesting 32 percent votes. The third contestant, the Bahujan Samaj Party of Maywati would have to be content with merely 58 seats as it would muster 22 percent votes.

The polls were conducted in 41 districts according to VDP Associates and had a sample size of 9119 spread in 87 constituencies. The rural profile was 81 percent of the sample.

Party	Seat Share	Vote Share (%)
BJP+	207	35
SP+Cong	128	32
BSP	58	22

THE WEEK Hansa Predicts hung assembly in UP

An opinion poll conducted by THE WEEK-Hansa Research has predicted a hung house in Uttar Pradesh. The poll foretells that the BJP would be the single largest party in the state and that in the house of 403 the BJP is likely to get 192 to 196 seats while the SP- congress alliance would be second getting 178 to 182 seats. The poll predicts that the BSP would be relegated to the third place with just 20 to 24 seats. The independents and other parties are likely to get five to nine seats. The poll was conducted last week after SP and congress sealed an electoral alliance.

TIMES NOW-CVoter Snap Poll on UP

Party	Dec 2016 Vote Share	Jan 2017 [SP Snap Poll] Vote Share
BJP	29.4	30.2
BSP	23.4	24.2
Congress	5	5.8
SP	28.7	24.9
SP-MYS	-	3.4
Other	13.6	11.5

UP Opinion Poll by India Today-Axis

On the day the Election Commission of India announced the polling schedule for five states, an opinion poll conducted by India Today-Axis from October to December 2016 has predicted a clear majority for BJP in Uttar Pradesh. The survey shows Prime Minister Narendra Modi's demonetisation drive as having a positive impact on the BJP's vote-share. Demonetisation was announced on November 8, halfway through the survey period. The survey shows the BJP's vote share increasing from 31% in October to 33% in December. In terms of seats, the survey projects 206-216 seats for BJP in the 403-member UP assembly.

Party	Seat Share	Votes Share %
BJP	206-216	33
SP	92-97	26
BSP	79-85	26
Congress	5-9	6
Other	7-11	9

ABP News-Lokniti CSDS Opinion Poll Uttar Pradesh

On the other hand, the ABP News-Lokniti-CSDS has predicted a close fight between the BJP and the Samajwadi Party in Uttar Pradesh. The survey has given 141-151 seats to the Samajwadi Party, 129-139 to the BJP, 93-103 to the BSP and 13-19 to the Congress. According to 28 percent of the voters, incumbent Uttar Pradesh Chief Minister Akhilesh Yadav is projected to retain his seat. Bahujan Samaj Party president Mayawati is placed second in the survey results with 21 percent of the votes. 

Only 3 percent of the voters picked Akhilesh Yadav’s father Mulayam Singh Yadav for the Chief Minister’s post. Voters also felt that Akhilesh's performance as Uttar Pradesh Chief Minister was better than that of Narendra Modi's performance as the prime minister, with 34 percent picking the former. 

Amid the deepening feud within the Yadav clan, a whopping 86 percent of the poll respondents picked Akhilesh as their choice for Uttar Pradesh Chief Minister. Father Mulayam Singh and uncle Ram Gopal only found favour with 6 percent and 2 percent of the voters respectively. Interestingly, while support for the SP among Muslim voters appears to have fallen by 8 percentage points from August, the BJP appears to have made inroads with the community in the same time period. While the BJP is expected to bag 55 percent of the upper caste votes, the SP is expected to win 75 percent of the Yadav vote. The BSP is projected to win 74 percent votes from the Jatavs and 56 percent votes from the Dalit community. 

Party	Seat Share	Votes %
SP	141-151	30
BJP+	129-134	27
BSP	93-103	22
INC	13-19	8
Other	6-12	13

India Today-Axis Opinion Poll for Uttar Pradesh

Results of the India Today-Axis Opinion Poll, published on 12 October 2016, have indicated that if elections were to be held in Uttar Pradesh today, the BJP's dream run looks set to continue in Uttar Pradesh with the party expected to win 170 to 183 seats. Nonetheless, it won't be enough to get majority in the state. A party must secure at least 202 seats to form majority in the 403-member Uttar Pradesh Assembly. The elections are likely to result in a hung Assembly, the opinion poll has revealed. It goes on predict Mayawati's Bahujan Samaj Party (BSP) is to be the runner-up with 115-124 seats. Incumbent Samajwadi Party is likely get 94 to 103 seats and sit in opposition. The Congress, which has been out of power in the state since 1989, is likely to fare miserably again, with 8 to 12 seats.

Party	Seat Share	Vote Shares
BJP	170-183	31%
BSP	115-124	28%
SP	94-103	25%
Congress	8 - 12	6%
Others	2 - 6	10%

UP Opinion Poll Survey by VDPAssociates

(Oct, 2016)

Party	Seat Share	Vote Shares
BJP+	190	31%
BSP	87	24%
SP	111	27%
Congress	5	5%
Others	10	13%

Uttar Pradesh Opinion Poll by 'My Mandate and Pratishtha Research'

According to an opinion poll conducted by 'My Mandate and Pratishtha Research' and published on parliamentarian.in, the BSP is projected to win 169 seats in the upcoming Uttar Pradesh assembly elections and the BJP 135. The survey covered a sample of 25,000 voters in 60 assembly constituencies including all four regions of the state, that is, Avadh, Pashchim Uttar Pradesh, Bundelkhand and Purvanchal. The survey was conducted between August 10 and 27, 2016.

Current and projected seat positions as well as voting percentages for different political parties ahead of the 2017 Uttar Pradesh assembly elections.

	Seat		Voting Percentage
Party	2012	2017 (Projections)	2012	2017 (Projections)
SP	224	74	29	24
BSP	80	169	25	34
BJP	47	135	15	30
INC	28	15	12	10
Others	24	10	19	3

Zone-wise projected positions of different political parties ahead of 2017 Uttar Pradesh assembly election.

Party	Paschim	Awadh	Bundelkhand	Purvanchal	Total
SP	15	25	2	32	74
BJP	48	22	3	62	135
BSP	67	30	11	61	169
INC	2	2	3	8	15
Others	4	2	0	4	10

Uttar Pradesh Survey by India TV-CVoter

The survey was conducted between 1st and 31st August 2016, using a random stratified sample of 20,642 respondents across all 403 constituencies.

Party	2012 (Actual Seat)	Seat Share Projections, 2016
BJP	47	134-150
BSP	80	95-111
SP	224	133-149
INC	28	5-13
Others	27	4-12

The survey further indicates that Akhilesh remains most desirable CM face in the state. 

CM Candidate	Vote %
Akhilesh Yadav	32.8%
Mayawati	28.2%
Sheila Dikshit	5.1%
Any BJP Leader	26%
Others	7.9%

Muslim vote division survey, August 2016

Party	Muslim vote %
SP	50.2
BJP	2.7
BSP	21.7
INC	12.6
Others	12.8

SP ahead of BSP & BJP, INC in vein: ABP News-Lokniti CSDS Opinion Poll

In accordance to the opinion poll conducted by ABP News-Lokniti CSDS, if the 2017 UP Assembly elections are held now, then 30% of the voters would be in favor of the Samajwadi Party (SP), 27% would caste their votes for the BJP and another 26% would back the Bahujan Samajwadi Party (BSP). Additionally, despite a rigorous campaign, the INC (Indian National Congress) is expected to settle for 5% of voters. The opinion poll was conducted between 23 July and 7 August 2016, with over 4000 people providing their insights on the forthcoming 2017 UP Assembly Elections. A key finding of this opinion poll is that both Samajwadi Party’s Akhilesh Yadav and Bahujan Samajwadi Party’s Mayawati alias Behanji are indeed the people’s choice for Uttar Pradesh’s next chief minister. 

Party	Seats	Vote %
Samajwadi Party	141-151	30
BJP	124-134	27
BSP	103-113	26
Congress	8-4	5
Others	6-12	12

ABP News-Cicero Opinion Poll on Uttar Pradesh Assembly Election 2017

Uttar Pradesh Assembly elections are due early next year and all the major political contenders have already begun their preparations to clinch victory in this politically significant state. ABP News-Cicero conducted a survey among 1,000 respondents to get an estimate of the voters' mood. The survey was conducted on July 24 and 25 in 10 constituencies of the state. According to the survey results, the BJP is most likely to form the next government in the state with SP and BSP as close runners-up.

Who would form the next government in UP?
BJP	32%
Samajwadi Party	26%
BSP	24%
Congress	7%
Hung assembly	4%
Can't say	7%

*percentage not indicative of vote share

The survey further indicates that Priyanka Gandhi may not be able to brighten Congress' fortunes in the state. 

Can Priyanka bring Congress back in UP?
Yes	19%
No.	51%
Can't say	30%

UP Opinion Poll by ABP News

(March – 2016)
In what may set off alarm bells within the ruling Samajwadi Party, an opinion poll conducted by ABP News has predicted that the main opposition party BSP would win 185 seats in the 403-member assembly if elections were held in Uttar Pradesh today. Gauging the current mood of the state’s electorate, the latest opinion poll has revealed that BSP supremo Mayawati will come back in power in the state by tying up with allies. The BSP was reduced to 80 seats in the 2012 polls but if the latest opinion polls are anything to go by, the scenario might change in the next elections.

Here’s a party-wise break-up below:

Party	Actual vote % in the 2012 election	Actual seats in the 2012 elections	Forecast vote % as per Opinion Poll Mar 2016	Forecast Seats as per Opinion Poll Mar 2016
BJP	15.3	42	24	120
AD	1	1
BSP	24.8	80	31	185
INC	11.5	29	11	13
RLD	2.3	8
SP	30.1	228	23	80
IND and Others	15	15	11	5
Total	100	403	100	403

Here's a region-wise break-up below:

Party	Avadh Pradesh	Bundelkhand	Paschim Pradesh	Purvanchal	Total
BJP+	19	5	32	64	120
BSP	31	11	30	63	185
INC+	1	1	3	8	13
SP	12	2	23	38	80
IND and Others	0	0	2	3	5
Total	63	19	145	176	403

Uttar Pradesh Opinion Poll by VDPAssociates

Forecast vote % and seats as per Opinion Poll July 2016			Actual vote % and Seats in the 2012 election
Party	Seats	Vote %	Seats	Vote %
BSP	165	29.8	80	25.9
BJP+	149	28.5	47	15
SP	68	22	224	29.1
INC	8	8.1	28	11.6

UP Opinion Poll by Elections.in

According to the results of an opinion poll conducted by Elections.in on social media site Twitter in June 2016, the BJP would gain victory if assembly elections were to be conducted in Uttar Pradesh today. While 35.64% say the winner is going to be BJP, 27.72% say it will be Mayawati's Bahujan Samaj Party. In what may come as positive news for the 'Grand Old Party', as many as 28.71% feel the winner is going to be Congress. The Samajwadi Party must be worried as it got only 7.92%.